Nfl props this week

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NFL Best Props

NFL Best Props

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With a 4. Dallas has also allowed opposing quarterbacks to rush for at least 20 yards five times in their nine games at the Jerry Dome. Matt Stafford and Jared Goff in a revenge game narrative is going to add up to a close game. Both secondaries have struggled, and both quarterbacks have playoff and Super Bowl experience- but only one of them has a ring.

Give me the Rams plus the points. CJ Stroud over 1. The implied team total here is 21 for Houston, and backup QB Davis Mills was able to throw for two vs. Since their Week 10 bye, the Rams are 7—1 straight up and 6—2 against the spread. Nfl props this week Los Angeles is also 2—0 as an underdog and 3—1 on the road against the spread during that stretch.

The Lions did post an NFL-best 12—5 record against the spread this season, but no quarterback has won more at Ford Field than Matthew Stafford , who will be making his homecoming this weekend. Joe Flacco Over Flacco has done nothing but air the ball out for the last few years. That number is down to In a point win against the Texans just a few weeks ago, Flacco still threw the ball 42 times.

Win or lose Saturday, Flacco is going down throwing. I felt the same way about Pittsburgh when it last made the postseason in The Ravens, for whatever reason, failed to run the ball against a bad Chiefs run defense. Although this bet is admittedly square, the Stanford product has proved very efficient at clearing this number.

Through 18 regular and postseason games, McCaffrey has cleared this number 10 times and surpassed 90 in 11 games. When you put McCaffrey up against a bad rush defense, he excels. In nine games against sides 22nd or worse in rush EPA per play for the season, McCaffrey is against this number and has cleared yards in a majority in four of seven successes.

As a result, bet on him to clear this number for the third straight game. This shapes up as a great sell-high spot on the 49ers defense for one particular reason. Plus, bettors have previously seen the 49ers defense struggle indoors against good tight ends. All the way back in Week 7 against Minnesota, they allowed a yard long to T.

Those two teams sit second and third, respectively, in tight end target share. Just in their last five games against teams 10th or higher in tight end target share — Vikings, Jaguars, Cardinals, Ravens and Lions — the 49ers have allowed a majority of opposing tight ends to clear this number. Further, the 49ers deploy zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.

Pacheco has cleared this number in four straight games and notched at least 80 yards in three of those successes. Is there a chance they correct that trend with time to prepare. Since acquiring Chase Young from the Commanders, the 49ers rank 23rd in rush EPA per play and 29th in rushing success rate. That should allow ample opportunity for Pacheco, who managed 69 yards against a Ravens side seventh in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.

However, the Lions count themselves amongst the best run-stopping units in the league. Playoffs included, Detroit ranks sixth in rushing EPA per play allowed. Now Samuel faces a Chiefs team much worse in that category. Playoffs included, the Chiefs rank 28th in rush EPA per play allowed and 23rd in rush success rate allowed. Although he received only three carries, he notched 53 rushing yards.

The key number here for Samuel is that he notches at least three rushing attempts against the Chiefs. In seven regular-season games in which he received at least three carries, he surpassed this number five times. I recognize this game is indoors and that passers are aided in that scenario.