Super bowl point spread history
Favorites have gone straight-up and against the spread in the Super Bowl. (One line was pick'em.) The winning team is 5 biggest point spread upsets in Super Bowl history · 1. New York Jets (+18) defeat Baltimore Colts, · 2. New England Patriots. The point spread in Patriots/Seahawks opened with Seattle laying points, but eventually closed with the Patriots as 1-point favorites. New. Superbowl ATS Statistics Super bowl point spread history Bills and the Vikings are the only teams in Super Bowl history to go against the spread. In the Super Bowl, Star.
Super Bowl Spread History: List of Every Super Bowl Spread
What's the lowest Super Bowl score ever? The lowest-scoring Super Bowl of all time was Super Bowl LIII in 2019. Just 16 total points were scored between the Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams. The Patriots won, 13-3.
Has a Super Bowl ever been won by one point? The smallest margin of victory for the team that scored first was one point, which happened once: in Super Bowl XXV in 1991, when the New York Giants beat the Buffalo Bills 20-19.
How often are point spreads correct? Point spreads are chosen to be maximally difficult to beat, so even a success rate of 5% above a baseline would be considered a success. It has been said by certain professional sports bettors that one should not expect more than approximately 60% accuracy in betting, so this is the figure that we will strive towards.
Who scored more than 40 points in a Super Bowl?
| TEAM | PTS | DATE |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 49 | 1/29/1995 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 48 | 1/26/2003 |
| Chicago Bears | 46 | 1/26/1986 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 43 | 2/2/2014 |
How often does the favorite win the Super Bowl? A comprehensive look at past winners reveals this trend to be a constant, as the eventual winner has covered the spread in nine of the last ten games, and 17 of the past 20. In fact, only seven total Super Bowl victors have failed to cover the spread.
Was 38-35 ever a Super Bowl score? The Eagles returned to the Super Bowl in 2023 in what was the third highest-scoring Super Bowl game of all time. They faced off against the Chiefs, but lost 38-35, for a total of 73 points.
What was the point spread in Super Bowl 50? The opening line for Super Bowl 50 saw the Panthers favored by 3.5 points, but as money poured in on the Panthers, they were favored by as much as six points. Now the line has settled with the Panthers favored by 5.5 points.
Are Super Bowl odds accurate? According to Sports Illustrated, since 2004, the EA Sports Madden Super Bowl simulation has accurately predicted the winner 55% of the time. In Super Bowl XLIX in 2015, the simulation was perfect, not only predicting that the Patriots would defeat the Seattle Seahawks, but also getting the score exactly right, 28-24.
What was the spread in Super Bowl 55? The Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Super Bowl 55 odds currently show the line is Chiefs -3. The over-under is 56. The Chiefs are a -162 moneyline favorite, while the Buccaneers are a +143 moneyline underdog.
Archived NFL Futures Odds
Share This Share. Eagles Eagles Rams Rams Buccaneers Chiefs Rams Patriots Patriots Patriots -4 LI Falcons vs. Patriots Patriots -3 L Panthers vs. Broncos Panthers Patriots Broncos Broncos Broncos Ravens 49ers Patriots Patriots Bears Colts -7 XL Steelers vs. But we should be careful about asserting that bookmakers and the betting public were just being foolish.
Besides, there are some entirely rational reasons why favorites might perform especially well in Super Bowls. Super Bowls are different from regular-season games in several important ways:. Some of these factors, especially the first four, might help favorites by reducing the amount of luck in the game. Even great teams have trouble avoiding bad breaks from injuries, poor field conditions, or poor officiating decisions.
But the impact of each of these factors is reduced in the Super Bowl. In the regular season, a team with a point Elo advantage has won by about 4 points on average. The difference is statistically significant. So perhaps those Super Bowl betting lines got a little bit carried away in the s.
But postseason games differ from regular season games — and Super Bowls differ from regular playoff games. In generating the trendlines, cases where Elo disagrees with Vegas about which team should be favored are treated as negative values. Are sportsbooks actually trying to split the betting action . They also have a higher RMSE: Both systems have performed poorly in the Super Bowl as compared with the regular season, when the have an RMSE of about In regular season Weeks 14 through 16 — I ignore Week 17 since teams sometimes rest their starters — a point Elo rating advantage has historically translated to a 4.
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