Odds onside kick
It appears to me, in looking at the chart, that the overall collective success for the SURPRISE kick is about 33%. (You could total all of them. Find out the latest information about Onside Kick including the next race, the latest horse race odds, previous wins, owner information and loads more from. Houston Texans defy the odds by recovering an onside kick vs. the Cleveland Browns. odds of odds onside kick Pelissero posted on X, formerly Twitter. "Just % were recovered in and there [sic] just two surprise onside kicks.
Onside kick success dropped from 21 percent to 6 percent after new rule
What is the NFL onside recovery rate? Just 5.2% of onside kicks were recovered in 2023, and there were just two surprise onside kicks due to run-ups being banned.
Has a Super Bowl ever started with an onside kick? Payton started things off with a callback to the surprise onside kick that started the second half of Super Bowl XLIV and sparked the New Orleans Saints to their first and only championship.
Has an onside kick ever been recovered? And they recovered it as well former offensive coordinator here and calls for the onside kick remember the Chiefs won the toss. And one of the football.
What are the odds of converting 4th and 15? 4th down conversion rate by distance
| Distance (Yards) | Conv-Att (Percent) |
|---|---|
| 13 | 12-54 (22.2%) |
| 14 | 12-57 (21.1%) |
| 15 | 14-64 (21.9%) |
| 15+ | 32-230 (13.9%) |
What is the success rate of onsides kick in the NFL? Onside kick recovery rate remains low (5.6%): This recovery rate follows in line with recent seasons under the 2018 kickoff alignment (13.5% recovery rate before 2018).
How rare is it to recover an onside kick? The probability that the kicking team recovers the onside kick and wins the game is 30.4%. The probability that the kicking team does not recover and wins the game is 19.1%. Adding those two probabilities up tells us that kicking team has a 49.5% chance of winning if they start overtime with an onside kick.
How successful are onside kicks? Onside kick recovery rate remains low (5.6%): This recovery rate follows in line with recent seasons under the 2018 kickoff alignment (13.5% recovery rate before 2018).
How risky is an onside kick? In football, an onside kick is a high-risk, high-reward play that allows the kicking team to retain possession of the ball after a kickoff. However, without proper field position, the chances of a successful onside kick diminish significantly.
What is the 4th and 20 rule? Under the Eagles' proposal, teams that scored a touchdown or field goal could have followed it by taking the ball at their own 20-yard line, facing a fourth-and-20. If the scoring team converted the fourth-and-20, it would keep the ball and go from there.
What is a good onside kick? Ideally, the football should go at an angle from the tee, gaining distance as it heads toward the sideline to a point 10 yards down field. The football must come down toward the sideline but not too close. It needs to remain in the field of play to ensure an opportunity for the kicking team to secure possession.
Why don t onside kicks work anymore? The surprise onside kick will be no more, because it cannot be run with the new formation. The onside kick is another play the league is working to change at some point, because they rarely work now anyway.
Can you recover your own onside kick? This means they can recover it if it goes 5 yards or even 10 yards. There are no limits for recovering an onside kick. If the ball touches the receiving team at any point after being kicked, the kicking team can recover the football before or after 10 yards.
How successful are onside kicks by year? Onside Kick Success Rate by Year
- 2022 regular season: 3-of-56 attempts recovered (5.3%)
- 2021 regular season: 9-of-56 attempts recovered (16.1%)
- 2020 regular season: 3-of-67 attempts recovered (4.4%)
- 2019 regular season: 8-of-62 attempts recovered (12.9%)
- 2018 regular season: 4-of-52 attempts recovered (7.7%)
What is the success rate of onside kicks by year? Onside Kick Success Rate by Year
What is the percentage of getting an onside kick? Overall, the success rate of the onside kick has dropped considerably since these rule changes. In the 2018 NFL season, only four of 52 kicks (8%) were successful, a figure that had dropped to 6% (two of 32) through the first eleven weeks of 2019.
2022 regular season: 3-of-56 attempts recovered (5.3%) 2021 regular season: 9-of-56 attempts recovered (16.1%) 2020 regular season: 3-of-67 attempts recovered (4.4%) 2019 regular season: 8-of-62 attempts recovered (12.9%)Weighing risk and reward - the surprise onside kick
They allow an overall success percentage which is consistent with the current ERA, not any specific season. As TClark mentioned, and I paraphrase, you should always have a chance, otherwise, what's the point. I totally agree. Doug, I am sorry for being such an idiot, because I didn't realize that you listed more years than !!!
I sincerely apologize. So I will total the surprise kicks, and go from there. I wonder if you could find the surprise kicks from Then we'd have it, Doug, for the surprise kicks. I would use Locator Columns I thru VI and if you get column six, and roll , make another column roll, and you may have to repeat the process, if necessary.
Alternatively, Prater might just have mis-kicked the ball and the Lions got lucky in recovering it. Onside kicks in the first quarter are rare only 55 this century , but they do happen, including a handful of times when a team has started a game with an onside kick like the Broncos did in week 17 against the Chargers in the Chargers recovered it.
The next surprise onside kick from happened with Dolphins down to the Bills. Miami had just scored with left in the first half. The Bills players were caught completely off-guard as Jason Sanders , the kicker for Miami, perfectly kicked a bouncing ball that he recovered once it had traveled the required 10 yards. Notice that Sanders lines up 10 yards back like he would on a normal kickoff most kickers not named Brandon McManus get a running start on kickoffs.
The Dolphins were down at home and tried this to start the second half. This one failed, but it was a little different. Instead of dribbling the ball forward and trying to recover it, Sanders tried to do what Prater had done, which was to hit the ball so hard that bounced off of one the first-line blockers.
Edwards , was ready for this and almost caught the ball cleanly. You should notice that the Eagles have the front line at the yard line while the Bills had almost of their front line guys at the 50, making the surprise kick much easier to pull off. The Eagles recovered and started their drive at the Miami Their drive would end in a yard touchdown pass from Carson Wentz to Alshon Jeffery to put the Eagles up Cookie banner We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from.
By choosing I Accept , you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. Odds onside kick Filed under:. Weighing risk and reward - the surprise onside kick. Reddit Pocket Flipboard Email. Or do you. Poll If you were a head coach, how often would you use the surprise onside kick. Share this story Twitter Facebook. The form of onside kick available at a free kick in American football is also available in Canadian football for a kickoff as well, although it is referred to as a short-kick, as all players are onside for a kickoff; however, the kick may well be chipped high instead of bounced, because the players of the receiving team have no particular first right to the ball as in American football due to the fair catch rule ; both sides may play the ball equally, even in the air.
Starting in , the following additional constraints in most forms of American football are relevant to the onside kick:. Unlike during a punt —where if the kicking team catches or recovers the ball, it is "downed" and the receiving team possesses the ball—during a free kick, a ball that has crossed the receiving team's restraining line is normally a live ball, such that if the kicking team catches or recovers the ball it retains possession.
The kicking team generally attempts to make the ball bounce early to remove the possibility of being charged with interfering with a catch and be available around 20 yards in front of the spot of the kick. One technique, useful especially on a hard or artificial surface, is to kick the ball in a way that it spins end-over-end near the ground and makes a sudden bounce high in the air.
The oblong shape of an American football makes it bounce unpredictably, increasing the possibility that the receiving team will muff the catch. An alternative is to kick the ball with a great deal of force directly at an opposing player. 
If the ball touches the player, but he cannot secure it, it becomes live regardless of whether it has traveled 10 yards. When the receiving team expects an onside kick, it often fields a "hands team" of players skilled at catching or otherwise securing the ball.
This is so they can make sure of securing possession once the ball has traveled the necessary 10 yards—the receiving team cannot simply refuse to touch the ball, as the ball is live once it has traveled 10 yards and can be claimed by either team; thus, if the receiving team does not make a play on the ball, it makes it a lot easier for the kicking team to do so and take possession.
Traditionally, the onside kick had its own formation, in which the other ten players of the kicking team would line up on one side left or right of the kicker, in an effort to get as many people as possible into one area of the field. This is still popular in high school football; however, the NCAA and later the NFL now require that at least four players line up on each side of the kicker.
To combat this, some teams including the Buffalo Bills , who pioneered this strategy [3] developed a "cluster formation" in which all of the players line up behind and immediately next to the kicker in what is effectively a moving huddle. The NFL eventually banned this, too, with a rule change that states that "the kicking team cannot have more than five players bunched together"; the rule change has been considered a gratuitous targeting of Bills special teams coach Bobby April , as the ostensible reason for the ban injury risk had negligible evidence to support it.
Additionally, the kicking team's players must line up in a specified configuration—on each side of the ball, at least two players must be between the sideline and the numbered yard markings, and at least two must line up between the numbers and hashmarks. At the same time, the NFL also required that at least eight members of the receiving team line up within the yard "setup zone" between 10 and 25 yards from the kickoff spot.
In , the NFL also mandated that no member of the kicking team, apart from the kicker, could line up more than 1 yard from the spot of the kickoff. Previously, all members of the kicking team could line up as many as 5 yards from the kickoff spot, allowing that team to make a running start toward an onside kick.
An onside kick is usually a desperation technique used when the kicking team trails in the score with little time left in the game, in order to regain the ball and score again. The trade-off is that, in the usual case that the receiving team does get possession of the ball, it will have better field position and will need to advance the ball fewer yards in order to score.
However, in the desperation situation, initial field position becomes less relevant, as the receiving team may focus on running the clock out and ending the game. If the kicking team succeeds in retaining possession, then the clock does not automatically stop as it would if the ball were transferred between teams though it may stop for other reasons. Occasionally, football coaches attempt surprise onside kicks to catch their opponent's players off guard and without the "hands team" on the field.
Notable examples from championship games include Super Bowl XXX , where Pittsburgh Steelers coach Bill Cowher called an onside kick early in the fourth quarter when trailing 20—10, which was successfully recovered, and Super Bowl XLIV , where the New Orleans Saints executed an onside kickoff to start the second half and successfully converted the possession into a touchdown.
In the College Football Playoff National Championship , with the score tied at 24—24 in the middle of the fourth quarter, the Alabama Crimson Tide successfully executed an onside kick against the Clemson Tigers , which led to a touchdown that gave Alabama the lead and eventual victory.
An onside kick is considered successful if the kicking team regains the ball. Each of these was successful. Overall, the success rate of the onside kick has dropped considerably since these rule changes. There have been versions of American football where the kicking team could recover the ball once it hit the ground, regardless of onside or offside, and not only for free kicks.
Any such kick recovered by the kicking team is often referred to as an "onside kick," even if the recovering player was in front of the kicker at the time of the kick and thus, according to the original definition, offside. One such scenario remains legal at all levels: any player on the offensive team can recover a kick anywhere on or behind the line of scrimmage.
These were also referred to as "onside kicks from scrimmage. Saint Louis University coach Eddie Cochems described the play after the season:. In these early years and into the s, all players of the kicking team except the kicker were permitted to recover the ball once it hit the ground beyond the neutral zone.