Turkish election bets

President Tayyip Turkish election bets seen trailing his challenger · Soaring inflation, lira collapse has eroded support · Unorthodox economic policies have. President Erdoğan beat expectations and secured % in the first round of voting against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Betting markets are seeing the May 14 Turkish presidential election tighten as incumbent President Recep Erdogan closes the gap to. Neither incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, garnered more than 50 percent of the vote, so they.

Why Erdoğan Is Now the Clear Favorite in Turkey’s Election

Who was the first dictator of Turkey? Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, also known as Mustafa Kemal Pasha until 1921, and Ghazi Mustafa Kemal from 1921 until the Surname Law of 1934 ( c. 1881 – 10 November 1938), was a Turkish field marshal, revolutionary statesman, author, and the founding father of the Republic of Turkey, serving as its first president from 1923 ...

How many languages does Erdogan know? TurkishRecep Tayyip Erdoğan / LanguagesTurkish is the most widely spoken of the Turkic languages, with around 90 to 100 million speakers. It is the national language of Turkey and Northern Cyprus. Wikipedia

Is Turkey a rich or Poor country? It also ranked as the 11th-largest in the world and 5th-largest in Europe by PPP in 2023. According to the IMF, as of 2022, Turkey had an upper-middle income, mixed-market, emerging economy. Turkey has often been defined as a newly industrialized country since the turn of the 21st century.

Is Turkey a republic or a democracy? It is governed as a unitary state under a presidential representative democracy and a constitutional republic within a pluriform multi-party system.

Is Turkey a democracy or autocracy? Turkey is a presidential representative democracy and a constitutional republic within a pluriform multi-party system, in which the president (the head of state and head of government), parliament, and judiciary share powers reserved to the national government.

What party is Erdogan? Justice and Development PartyRecep Tayyip Erdoğan / Party

How big is Turkey ranked? Turkey is an upper-middle-income and emerging country; its economy is the 17th- or 11th-largest in the world. It is a unitary presidential republic. Turkey is a founding member of the OECD, G20, and Organization of Turkic States.

Re-Betting on Turkey

Chevron Chevron. President Tayyip Erdogan seen trailing his challenger Soaring inflation, lira collapse has eroded support Unorthodox economic policies have sent investors fleeing May seen as particularly volatile market period. Bazooka rate hikes. The many unknowns around Turkey's pivotal elections on Sunday are leaving even the most experienced investors hedging their bets on how markets will react.

The presidential vote, which could well require two rounds, is pitting President Tayyip Erdogan's vision of a heavily-managed economy and its repeated bouts of crisis, against a return to liberal orthodoxy under opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu that won't be easy either. The latest survey by the closely-watched pollster Konda showed Kilicdaroglu more than five percentage points ahead of Erdogan, whose popularity has been hit by a cost-of-living crisis caused by rampant inflation.

Outcomes in the presidential and parliamentary elections range from Kilicdaroglu's six-party opposition alliance or Erdogan's AK Party making clean sweeps. The presidency and the parliament being split between them, parties scrambling to build parliamentary coalitions or the messiest option - the results not being accepted. Erdogan's heavy-handed insistence on low interest rates, plentiful credit and unconventional market management generally has sent foreign investors fleeing, though many say they are preparing to return if he is ousted.

Turkey's beaten down stock and bond markets rallied on Thursday on the news that one of the four presidential candidates had withdrawn from the race, a move seen as a further boost to Kilicdaroglu's chances. JPMorgan, for example, predicts the lira collapsing to almost 30 to the dollar from around This week's huge spike in FX options also point to a hefty swing one way or the other.

Predicting the outcome of the election and moves in the lira and interest rates, "is the single biggest thing to get right this year in local EM markets," said Werner Gey van Pittius the Co-Head Emerging Market Fixed Income. Markets could also lurch if Erdogan and the AK Party continue in power and push on with their unorthodox policies.

Fund manger GMO's Carl Ross warns that with currency reserves depleted and the pressures on banks and savers, they may face a full-blown crisis. The government says its rate cuts boosted exports and investments as part of a programme that encouraged lira holdings.

Turkey runs an important current accounts deficit and needs to raise its savings levels as well as research and development budgets. The Arab Spring has adversely affected its trade and economic relations with the Middle East. There are also growing concerns about an erosion of the democratic gains achieved in the recent past particularly with respect to freedom of expression and rule of law.

The Kurdish question still constitutes a major challenge to long term domestic stability. The constitutional reform process appears to be stuck too. This is critical because the free trade agreements that the EU signs with third parties have long been a major source of resentment and grievances for Turkey.

This is because the customs union requires that Turkey take on all the obligations associated with such agreements without binding third parties to extend any trade privileges to Turkey. So far the EU has not been very responsive to Turkish calls to rectify this situation. Turkish election bets The U.

However, the U. Turkish businesses can also enjoy better access to U. The logic behind why this would be an effective Big Bet is quite straight forward. The more it grows, the more it can import U. In this way not only would Turkey be tied to the liberal global order, but it would also become an even more effective conduit for disseminating liberal economic and democratic values to a neighborhood still struggling to transition from the legacy of command economies and authoritarian political systems.

Alan Makovsky, Sabri Sayari. Foreign Policy. Europe Turkey. Center on the United States and Europe. The Turkey Project. Re-Betting on Turkey. Sections Sections. Sign Up. Research Re-Betting on Turkey. Why is Turkey an important cornerstone in establishing the liberal global order. Can Turkey set an example and help spread democratic values to neighboring countries?

Recommendation: Clearly, much more could have been achieved and highlighting a more ambitious agenda for U. Background: It is often forgotten that Turkey was a participant in the making of the global liberal order at the end of the Second World War, albeit of course a very junior one. Deepen Economic Ties to Turkey. Turkey and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

A Changing Turkey. More On. The trans-Atlantic economy