Who is expected to win the kentucky derby
When Honor Marie tackled a two-turn configuration for the first time in the 1 1/mile Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, he rallied strongly to win. Tapit Trice. Google Bard: I like the chances of Tapit Trice to win the Kentucky Derby. He is the second-lowest odds horse at Derby Watch ; Last Race: Florida Who is expected to win the kentucky derby, 3/30, 1st by 13 1/2,Next Likely Race: Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4m, Churchill Downs, 5/4. At +, Fierceness has an implied probability of % to win the th Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone follows closely, with an implied.
2024 Kentucky Derby horses, futures, odds, date: Expert who hit 10 Derby-Oaks Doubles shares picks
Tips, Trends, and Tendencies to Consider When Betting the 2024 Kentucky Derby
Reviewing recent editions of the Kentucky Derby reveals trends and tendencies that recur year after year, helping us sort through the plus contenders and identify horses who best fit the historical profile of a typical Kentucky Derby winner. Please note: For the purpose of analyzing historically productive betting angles, we are counting Medina Spirit as the winner of the Kentucky Derby.
Although he was later disqualified due to a positive drug test, he remains the winner for determining betting payoffs. Generally speaking, early speed has been an advantage in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby. A damagingly fast pace can give closers a chance to shine, but in years with a normal or slow pace, speed horses are formidable. Specifically, analyzing how fast each Derby contender ran the final three-eighths of a mile of their final prep race has been productive.
Horses who negotiated that distance in seconds or less have won 19 of the last 26 Kentucky Derbys read more detailed information here about this betting angle. California has been the best place to train for the Kentucky Derby in recent years. Five of those seven competed in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
During the same timeframe, California has also churned out Kentucky Derby runners-up Exaggerator , Firing Line , and Bodemeister , plus third-place finishers Battle of Midway and Dortmund The last horse to win both races was Strike the Gold in In contrast, the Blue Grass has been gaining in importance since returning to dirt after being held on an all-weather track from But post 2 has experienced an even longer dry spell, going winless since Triple Crown winner Affirmed took the Derby.
Overall, the data suggests outside posts are preferable, with nine of the last 16 Kentucky Derby winners starting from post-position 13 or wider. That includes Rich Strike and Big Brown , two runners who broke from the far outside post 20 in their respective races.
Sometimes, horses entering the Kentucky Derby off defeats manage to rebound in the run for the roses—Rich Strike and Mage are two recent examples. But on the whole, horses entering off victories have performed best in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby, with last-out winners taking home the roses in nine of the last 13 years. That stat would read 10 of the last 13 if not for the disqualification of Maximum Security.
Almost as impressively, eight of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners arrived at Churchill Downs undefeated for the season, so it routinely pays to support horses who enter in winning form. Horses who race heavily before the Kentucky Derby have been at a disadvantage in recent years. Since , 17 out of 19 Kentucky Derby winners for betting purposes raced in only two or three races between January and April of their 3-year-old year.
The two horses to defy this trend were Country House who was awarded first place via the disqualification of Maximum Security, who ran three times between January and April and Medina Spirit. Join SportsLine here to get his full Kentucky Derby picks. A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years , including an exacta in with Mo Donegal and Nest!
Join here to win your Derby bets. Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. Who is expected to win the kentucky derby One of Demling's surprising Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby.
Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez gives Fierceness a pair of the most experienced connections in the Kentucky Derby lineup. Pletcher has had 64 starters at the Kentucky Derby and this will be Velazquez's 26th time in the mount in the crown jewel of American horse racing.
Velazquez is a three-time Derby winner, but Pletcher has only had two winners from those 64 attempts and owner Mike Repole is 0-for-7 as a Kentucky Derby owner. He has three dominant wins in his career to date, but he also finished seventh at the Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old and third as the favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes to kick off his three-year-old season. See which other Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he's a longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After failing to break his maiden in three attempts as a two-year-old, Resilience finally found his way to the winner's circle on New Year's Day at Gulfstream Park.
He followed that up with a fourth-place finish at the Risen Star Stakes and broke through with a win at the Wood Memorial to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.