538 nba predictions

FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning. In the last row of the table, we see that the overall accuracy of FiveThirtyEight's model is 76%, the same as the overall accuracy of our. Get started! ZCode Details. nba game predictions (Coupon: NikMpb). How Good is FiveThirtyEight's NBA Prediction Model? As someone who watches basketball. Just like last year, most predict the Oklahoma City Thunder will be 538 nba predictions or near the bottom of the league. It's the second year of an all-out.

How Our NBA Predictions Work

🏀 2023-24 NBA Forecast 📈

The second model correctly predicts every single game outcome, whereas the first model is equivalent to a random guess of who the winner will be. Moreover, we will want to look at the relative accuracy of the model, meaning how good the model is relative to other reasonable baseline models we might use. Since FiveThirtyEight has generously made their data available on github , I was able to evaluate their NBA prediction models for the playoffs from , keeping in mind the points I made above code available here.

The results of the evaluation for both models are summarized in the table 3 below for each season. The two models correctly predicted the same number of series in every season, except in and , when they were off by one. This is pretty remarkable if you remember that the baseline model only uses the team seeds to predict the series outcome.

This has been shown before in other fields too — for example, this paper by Zhao, et al. But it may also have something to do with the stochastic nature of the game, aspects of which may not be possible to measure quantitatively. We know, intuitively, that when two teams are well-matched, the game becomes a toss-up on who will win.

So all that the higher Brier score tells us is that it does better than a random guess. Since seedings are determined within each conference, the only scenario in which team seedings may not be enough information to predict the winner is if the NBA finals feature two teams with the same seed from the East and West conferences.

Quick links. FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for Post 1 » by bisme37 » Fri Oct 14, pm The computers at are up and running and have made their first predictions for the season. This is probably not what people were expecting in several cases so I thought I'd see what we think about this. This thread can be updated as the predictions are adjusted throughout the year.

Thank god for A castle with no long-range archers That is all I have to say. Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for Post 3 » by Exp0sed » Fri Oct 14, pm Every yeay same nonsense Sure, the Jazz who literally have almost no quality on the roster at all and are openly tanking are gonna win 38 gams, ah ha sure. Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for Post 5 » by jasonxxx » Fri Oct 14, pm and this is why we ignore the math before any games have been played.

It's almost like life doesn't work out like a 2k simulation There is absolutely nothing you can get out of these rankings. Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for Post 6 » by giberish » Fri Oct 14, pm Exp0sed wrote: Every yeay same nonsense Sure, the Jazz who literally have almost no quality on the roster at all and are openly tanking are gonna win 38 gams, ah ha sure.

Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for Post 7 » by facothomas22 » Fri Oct 14, pm The Jazz traded 3 of their best players on the roster and are clearly tanking, but yet they are above teams like the Kings or even the Rockets. Like come on. 538 nba predictions The Hawks above the the Nets, Bucks,76ers or Cavaliers. Hornets above the Bulls. Clippers below the Suns who seem to be having a lot issues right now , Grizzles who don't have Jaren Jackson , and the Mavericks?

I only know a little bit about how their projections work. They extrapolate from their player evaluation data. So if their data really values a player, that's going to tilt things with a lot of weight in these projections and often explains why they occasionally go so far off. But the numbers didn't understand his hamstring injury or Kyrie's skipping of the season.

I agree to see the Nuggets this high. We only saw it for a minute, but the offense in that starting lineup was startling in how well it fit together a couple seasons ago. Jokic in the meantime has become the most projections friendly player ever, so a team with him on it is going to crush data based projection.

I'm surprised to see the Grizzlies so high and wonder if they factor in the JJJ injury and the overall depth issues around it. They can't love rookies, so the system must be really high on Morant and maybe Bane. They also really love the Hawks. But I always find these interesting. I was watching pokemon for 5 hours. Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for Post 11 » by cupcakesnake » Fri Oct 14, pm hauntedcomputer wrote: jasonxxx wrote: There is absolutely nothing you can get out of these rankings.

The rest maybe happens, maybe not but I don't think they seem outrageous. Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for Post 14 » by jasonxxx » Fri Oct 14, pm hauntedcomputer wrote: jasonxxx wrote: There is absolutely nothing you can get out of these rankings.