We used FiveThirtyEight's NBA Finals odds to rank the top 19 teams in the league this season. The Bucks and Lakers still sit atop the NBA. @NateSilver ·. Apr Throwback NBA chat nba odds 538. @Neil_Paine odds of seeing a Canadian Stanley Cup winner since ! Denver NBA Finals @TheSteinLine. On October 19,the day the NBA season began, FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR model projected that the Warriors would gofinish with the. NBA Win Totals And Futures Vs. FiveThirtyEight & DARKO ; Portland Trail Blazers, +, + ; Chicago Bulls, +, + ; Memphis Grizzlies, +.
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And yet by projecting that the Warriors would win 36 games, FiveThirtyEight actually predicted that the Warriors would get worse by getting back Thompson — a rather preposterous prediction, given that Golden State had been the most dominant team in the league for years when he and Steph were healthy, and had come within a Draymond Green suspension and a pair of devastating injuries of potentially winning five consecutive championships.
Their model has discounted the Warriors so thoroughly and so consistently that if we were to actually take their preseason and in-season probabilities seriously, the Warriors winning it all would have to be considered one of the greatest longshot upsets in the history of professional sports. It would mean that their model was so thoroughly useless that at no point during the entire NBA season did it even approach predicting who would actually win the NBA title — an almost unthinkable feat for a model on any prediction site, let alone one run by Nate Silver.
In other words, if you had written on a napkin in October that the Warriors would have at least a 0.