Nfl week 1 win probability

I've been watching football for as long as I nfl week 1 win probability and even I forget the rules of intentional grounding some times. It's essentially throwing. San Francisco 49ers SF PR #1 win probability. %. SF. Kansas City Chiefs KC PR #5 Our Recommendations. Total, Spread, Moneyline. Want access to. NFL Week 1: Betting odds and lines for every game · The Ravens are ATS in their last seven Week 1 games. · The Ravens are outright. NFL Week 1 odds: Best available point spreads, moneylines, totals ; Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET, Jaguars @ Colts ; Sunday, Sept 10, 1 p.m. ET.

NFL Week 1 odds: Moneylines, point spreads, over/under

What is the highest scoring NFL game Week 1? The Atlanta Falcons have scored the most points by a team in a Week-1 game, with 62 points versus the Saints on September 16, 1973.

How many underdogs won Week 1 NFL? Here's a look at the big trends that stood out. Since 2000, underdogs are 175-155-14 (53%) against the spread (ATS) and 117-225 (34%) straight up (SU) in Week 1 games. If you go back even further to 1966 (the beginning of the Super Bowl era), the cover rate stays approximately the same at 402-370-25 ATS (52.1%).

How often does the first team to score win in NFL? In 2021, teams that scored first have won 63.2 percent of the time. When viewed on a week-to-week basis, the aggregate win percentage of teams that scored first has fluctuated throughout the season, dipping as low as 31 percent in Week 5.

What are the point spreads for the first week of the NFL? NFL Week 1 point spreads:

• Lions (+6.5) at Chiefs (-6.5)
• Panthers (+3.5) at Falcons (-3.5)
• Texans (+10) at Ravens (-10)
• Bengals (-2.5) at Browns (+2.5)
• Jaguars (-4.5) at Colts (+4.5)
• Buccaneers (+6) at Vikings (-6)
• Titans (+3) at Saints (-3)
• 49ers (-2.5) at Steelers (+2.5)

Sunday's action includes last year's runner-up, the Philadelphia Eagles, facing off as favorites against the New England Patriots. Whether you are learning how to bet on sports or a seasoned sharp, USA TODAY readers can claim exclusive promos and bonus codes at the top sportsbooks and sports betting sites.

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See applicable operator site for its terms and conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Must be 21 or older to gamble. Add Topic. The NFL is back. Detroit Lions Atlanta Falcons vs. Matchup must-reads: Could the Cardinals start a fifth-round rookie. Magic Johnson preaches championship practices to Commanders Gannon mum on starting quarterback Will Rivera's big bets on Bieniemy, Howell go bust for all?

Storyline to watch: Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' defense look to continue their hot streaks. In four career season openers, Jackson has thrown 12 touchdown passes and one interception, for a Texans quarterback C. Stroud , the No. Under coach John Harbaugh, Baltimore is Bold prediction: Expect the Texans' secondary to get their hands on the ball and intercept Jackson several times.

Houston invested in the unit this offseason at the draft and through free agency, and new coach DeMeco Ryans, the former Niners defensive coordinator, is calling plays. Nfl week 1 win probability And the Texans are facing the Ravens' new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who is known to operate a pass-heavy offense.

Stat to know: Baltimore is Houston in franchise history, their fourth-highest win percentage against any opponent. The Ravens last lost to the Texans in Matchup X factor: Monken. How do Jackson and the offense fare in the new system. This will be a major signal of how Baltimore's season will go.

Injuries: Texans Ravens. What to know for fantasy: The Texans' defense allowed the most rushing yards 2, and touchdowns 22 to running backs last season. Baltimore running back J. Dobbins is healthy, and the Ravens are heavy favorites, so look for him to grind on the ground. Betting nugget: The Ravens are outright as double-digit favorites in the regular season.

Matchup must-reads: Howard placed on IR, to miss first four games What will Jackson and Ravens' new offense look like. Both teams underwent major construction this offseason, and while the quarterback position was the biggest change for Green Bay, the supporting cast around third-year Bears quarterback Justin Fields as well as six new starters on defense looks vastly different than the one Chicago fielded during last season's three-win finish.

Bold prediction: The Bears led the NFL in rushing yards per game last season, and only six teams allowed more rushing yards per game than the Packers. But the Packers will hold the Bears under yards rushing thanks in part to a younger defensive front and a concerted effort by defensive coordinator Joe Barry to start faster this year.

He is one win shy of tying the longest winning streak against a single opponent to begin a Packers coaching career in the Super Bowl era Mike McCarthy, nine straight wins vs. Matchup X factor: Packers tight end Luke Musgrave. Whether it's Musgrave or receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed , Green Bay is going to need a second pass-catcher to emerge alongside second-year receiver Christian Watson.

Injuries: Packers Bears. What to know for fantasy: Fields has a new receiver to target in DJ Moore , who has averaged 5. Fields is ATS at home. Matchup must-reads: What have Packers done differently to avoid another Week 1 disaster. Bears list veteran Peterman as QB2 behind Fields How Packers' offense will change from Rodgers to Love.

Storyline to watch: The Broncos' offense -- the league's lowest-scoring outfit last season -- and quarterback Russell Wilson career-low 16 TD passes in will be under serious scrutiny. Any chance they have to end a six-game losing streak against the Raiders will hinge on handling Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and edge rusher Maxx Crosby effectively.

Jacobs has rushed for at least yards in four of the six games, while Crosby has 10 sacks, 13 tackles for loss and 14 quarterback hits. Bold prediction: Jacobs, despite missing all of training camp and the exhibition season in a contract stalemate , will have more than yards from scrimmage.

After all, the first-team All-Pro running back has feasted on the Broncos in his career, going with rushing yards and nine touchdowns on carries 4. Stat to know: Wilson is all-time vs. Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. A sixth win would tie for his most vs. If Jerry Jeudy is out or limited, the Broncos' passing attack is going to need to rely on Mims right away. Whether the rookie can make an impact in his debut might determine if the Broncos can keep up with what could be a good Raiders offense.

Injuries: Raiders Broncos. What to know for fantasy: Denver running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine are solid Week 1 starters against a Raiders defense that gave up 20 touchdowns against the run last season. Matchup must-reads: Jones says Raiders sent crisis team to his home Can Wilson adapt to Payton's offense?

Wilson learning on the job after late start with Raiders Surtain gearing up for another shot at Adams. Storyline to watch: The Eagles are coming off a season in which they totaled the third-most sacks in NFL history 70 , and the Patriots' biggest question mark is their offensive line.

The Patriots' line has managed injuries, illness and inconsistency throughout training camp to the point that the projected starting five hasn't played a single snap together. Patriots coach Bill Belichick said of the Eagles' D: "Their front is dominant, the best pass-rushing front in the league by quite a bit.

Bold prediction: New England's special teams will score a touchdown. The Eagles have had a lot of turnover on their special teams units and will likely need some time before the operation is fully buttoned up. He'll be facing off against Marcus Jones , who led the league in punt return yards and broke off an yard return for a touchdown last season en route to being named first-team All-Pro as a rookie.

Stat to know: New England quarterback Mac Jones ' 4. The Eagles ranked first in pass rush win rate last season Matchup X factor: Patriots edge rusher Josh Uche. With Injuries: Eagles Patriots. What to know for fantasy: The Eagles allowed a league-low 4. Jones and the Patriots' offense are in for a tough Sunday afternoon after the offensive line struggled during preseason and training camp.

Matchup must-reads: Inside the Eagles' decision to draft Carter Stevenson excited about teaming with Elliott in Patriots' backfield. Storyline to watch: The Chargers made sure Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa never got comfortable in Week 14 last season, limiting him by taking away quick-timing throws and the middle of the field.

Miami coach Mike McDaniel had a whole offseason to figure out how to counter that approach, but Los Angeles will have star pass-rusher Joey Bosa available after he didn't play last year's matchup because of a groin injury. Whoever dictates the tempo and nature of the Dolphins' pass game will have a huge advantage. Bold prediction: Miami will run for plus yards against the NFL's fifth-worst run defense from a season ago, including a yard game from an inspired Raheem Mostert , quieting the talk about Miami trading for a running back.

The Dolphins averaged 4. That changes this year. James harden marriage It was also one of the Dolphins defense's biggest weaknesses, as it allowed the second-highest QBR 82 to opposing quarterbacks outside the pocket. Matchup X factor: Chargers cornerback J. Fresh off a forgettable campaign, Jackson will play a crucial role in stopping a passing attack that was ruthlessly efficient last season.

Whether Jackson plays like he did in or will go a long way in determining how the Chargers do Sunday -- and this season. Injuries: Dolphins Chargers. What to know for fantasy: Look for Herbert and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to light up the vertical passing game under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

He led Cowboys offenses to average 8. Betting nugget: Tagovailoa is ATS in his career as an underdog. Matchup must-reads: Keeping Tagovailoa upright will be tested vs. Biggest questions for the Chargers entering the season. Storyline to watch: The opener marks Bobby Wagner 's return to Seattle after one season with the Rams.

The Seahawks brought back the future Hall of Fame linebacker as part of an overhaul to their front seven after finishing 30th in run defense last season. The Rams were tied for 27th in rushing last year and won't have star receiver Cooper Kupp , which will allow Seattle to focus more attention on stopping the run.

Bold prediction: Rams running back Cam Akers will continue where he left off against Seattle to end the season with another yard rushing game. Even with the emphasis the Seahawks put on improving against the run, Akers will become the fifth Rams player to record four consecutive games with or more rushing yards over the past 30 seasons. Stat to know: The Seahawks' four straight wins in season openers is the longest streak in franchise history and is tied for the second-longest active streak in the NFL.

With Kupp out, the Rams are going to need receiving help from somewhere other than receiver Van Jefferson and tight end Tyler Higbee. Enter these two late-round fantasy sleepers, who each have a chance to make an instant impact. Injuries: Rams Seahawks. What to know for fantasy: Kupp is out for Week 1, which puts Higbee in the spotlight.

The Seahawks' defense allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends last season, and Higbee has averaged 0. Betting nugget: Seattle has covered in three straight season openers. Matchup must-reads: How McVay hit the reset button after difficult year Seahawks expect Smith-Njigba wrist to play vs. Carroll rules out Adams for Seahawks opener.

Storyline to watch: Cowboys defenders DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons teed off on right tackle Evan Neal and the Giants' offensive line last season, to the tune of five sacks in the two meetings. Neal altered his stance this offseason, and the Giants insist he has "improved. Bold prediction: The Cowboys' priority in the offseason was to shore up the run defense, which led to the drafting of defensive tackle Mazi Smith in the first round.

Seeing Giants running back Saquon Barkley in Week 1 will be a test. Nfl week 1 win probability Barkley has more games with fewer than 51 yards rushing against Dallas five than yard games two , but he will tally more than yards in this one and do so on plus carries, as the Cowboys will make him work for it. Stat to know: Quarterback Dak Prescott looks to extend his game win streak against the Giants on Sunday.

With a win, he would tie Roger Staubach for the longest win streak against the Giants since at least Matchup X factor: Neal. If he's hasn't improved from Year 1, quarterback Daniel Jones better watch out. But if we're about to witness a Year 2 leap, that could pay major dividends for the Giants' offense. Injuries: Cowboys Giants. What to know for fantasy: Since , Cowboys receiver Brandin Cooks is one of seven players in the league with 8,plus receiving yards and plus receiving touchdowns.

Barkley sees his game going to a new, improved level Cowboys look to 'Seize Everything' with 'Carpe Omnia' slogan Shepard still has his 'wiggle' after ACL tear. Monday, p. Storyline to watch: The Jets have gone eight straight games against the Bills without scoring more than 20 points. Enter Aaron Rodgers , their new offensive catalyst.

He will be tested by a defense that allowed only 5. Bold prediction: Whichever defense finishes the game with more sacks will win. For both teams in this big AFC East matchup, the offensive line is an area of weakness, and they will be tested in significant ways against two strong defensive fronts. The team that protects its quarterback better will come out with the early advantage in the division race.

Stat to know: Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is with seven passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns and four interceptions in season openers as a starter. He will become the first Bills quarterback to start five straight openers since Jim Kelly 11 straight from Matchup X factor: Jets offensive tackle Mekhi Becton.

The fastest way for the Jets' season to go south is via offensive line failures. Becton is a question mark at right tackle, having only played one game the past two seasons, but the first-round pick certainly has upside, too. Injuries: Bills Jets.

What to know for fantasy: Last season, Jets receiver Garrett Wilson caught Now he'll be catching passes from Rodgers, who sports a career Betting nugget: Rodgers is ATS and outright as a regular-season home underdog. He is ATS and outright in the past six instances. Matchup must-reads: Diggs: Being Bills captain 'means more' this year For Allen, Bills' season opener provides opportunity to showcase progress Skip to main content Skip to navigation.

Chicago Bears. Dak 'fine in any situation' when it comes to deal. Dallas Cowboys. Los Angeles Rams.