Ufc 286 bets
We have a massive fight slate this Saturday in Ufc 286 bets, as the welterweight title is up for grabs between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman in. Leon Edwards (+) vs. Kamaru Usman () - Main Event. Justin Gaethje (+) vs. Rafael Fiziev () - Co-Main Event. Gunnar Nelson () vs. Bryan Barberena (+).
UFC 286 Luck Ratings: Undervalued and Overvalued Fighters to Bet Now (Saturday, March 18)
Who would win usman vs khamzat? Khamzat Chimaev wins a well-fought fight via majority decision against Kamaru Usman.
Who is the favorite to win Usman vs Edwards 3? He had held it since early 2019. Edwards (20-3) looks to prove that his win against Usman (20-2) was no fluke. He'll have the backing of the hometown crowd in his first title defense. Despite knocking out Usman in their last meeting, the Brit is a +200 moneyline underdog, and Usman is a -250 favorite.
Who to bet on UFC 287? UFC 287 has a mixture of veterans and up-and-comers looking to make their name in the UFC. There aren't any massive betting favorites, with welterweight legend Gilbert Burns the most considerable favorite of the entire event in his co-main event matchup with Jorge Masvidal, another future UFC Hall of Famer.
UFC 286 Predictions, Start Time & Odds for Edwards vs. Usman: Sat, 3/18
Barbarena has made a career of taking fun fights against aging legends, with his last three bouts coming against Robbie Lawler, Matt Brown and Rafael dos Anjos. He's in the UFC with a record in split or majority decisions. The win was against Brown, and it was a fairly generous decision for Barberena. It's hard to say a favorite is undervalued here, but it just might be the case.
I won't be laying the moneyline , but keep an eye on submission or finish props for Gunnar as the week goes on. Three of those nine have come inside the distance — an impressive rate for the women's flyweight division. The lone outlier was her last bout, a split-decision win over Roxanne Modafferi. That's not super confidence-inspiring, given the Modafferi was in the UFC and the fight against O'Neill was her retirement bout.
With that said, watching the fight back, it looked like a pretty clear decision for O'Neill. The only disputed round was the first, with two judges siding with Modafferi. However, O'Neill outstruck her nearly two-to-one in that round, and neither fighter landed a takedown. Nine of those 10 bouts went to a decision, with the lone exception a stoppage win over Joanne "JoJo" Wood.
Ironically, it came against Modafferi. All things considered, not a ton of "luck" for either fighter here since the only split decision in question went the correct way. Still, O'Neill seems a bit undervalued here. She's more than a decade younger and has all of the finishing upside. Additionally, this feels like a fight booked to showcase O'Neill.
Maia has already had a crack at the title while O'Neill is the hometown fighter getting a push from the promotion. The main-card opener features former title contender and top-five mainstay Marvin Vettori looking to fend off the surging Roman Dolidze. Ufc 286 bets Vettori is in the UFC with two of his losses coming to former champ Israel Adesanya, and one to another former champion in Robert Whittaker.
His only loss that hasn't aged well came against Antonio Carlos Junior in He also has a draw against Omari Akhmedov, though one judge gave him the win. Vettori has finished just one of his UFC wins — while never being finished himself. One of his losses to Adesanya was a split decision, which is impressive given Adesanya's dominance at the time.
Notably, he took the third round on all three scorecards in that fight. Dolidze is in the UFC with four finishes, plus a split and unanimous decision win. His lone loss was a decision as well. Notably, he's lost the final round in two of his three bouts that went the distance.
Considering Gaethje has seen only one decision in his UFC career, then under 2. Fiziev has a stronger blend of offensive wrestling, a wide-reaching kickboxing background, and absorbs fewer strikes overall by a margin of 3 per minute. Fiziev may look to take the fight to the later rounds, where Gaethje is considerably less experienced.
The UFC betting odds for Fiziev may move later in the week, as Gaethje has a notably larger fanbase. Once a force in the UFC welterweight division, Nelson has only fought once in the last three years due to injury and planning May He is in his last five, losing to Edwards, Burns and Ponzinibbio. Barberena is in his last five, but analysts are worried about his ground game against Nelson, especially after he showed a series of technical mistakes against RDA last December, leading to a second round submission loss.
We see Nelson as the superior grappler, and Barberena has struggled against BJJ style fighters time and again. 
Expect a similar outcome this weekend. We are not confident enough to move this to a parlay, and we would consider Nelson to be a stronger bet at closer to Maia has gone in the UFC since , and those 11 fights in five years have taken their toll.
We could see Maia survive, but take a beating along the way. The UFC odds for Vettori reflect his winning streak and seem to ignore his current status since then. Dolidze is in the UFC, finishing four fights via knockout, but with Vettori taking shots from Adesanya, Whittaker and Costa, bettors are unconvinced he can be finished.
Each has taken massive amounts of career damage. Why is nobody talking about Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze. Who you got. UFC pic. Vettori absorbs 3. While standing, Dolidze will land more and land often. For that, we estimate an easy three rounds for Vettori, unless he shows up too cocky to wrestle.
Shore is coming off an upset loss. He was a over Ricky Simon, but was submitted in the second round after a one-sided fight. Shore has an easy win ahead if he does not shoot for any takedowns. Outside of one special moment where Edwards is able to jump on a submission, I have to expect Usman to control wrestling exchanges and dominate top position once again.
Even in striking exchanges, Usman was largely the superior fighter. Edwards actually underperformed his weak striking average by landing only 55 significant strikes in 24 minutes. Usman beat him at distance, and was able to consistently back him into the cage and land flurries. Of course, the key issue here is whether the durability of Usman has changed.
Plus, Usman was hurt by Colby Covington. He was hurt by Gilbert Burns. As a reference point, Usman has absorbed more than significant strikes in his UFC career. Only one of them knocked him unconscious. Could it happen again. Yes, it could. But the more likely outcome is that Edwards continues to land a low volume of strikes at range, as he has done for his entire career, and Usman can survive.
Usman is also the superior wrestler, and likely wants to fight more cautiously in the trilogy fight. I expect him to lean even more heavily on his wrestling, where Edwards only defends takedowns at 68 percent. Overall, Usman is one of the best round winners in the sport, and Edwards will continue to have an uphill battle to climb, as his best tool will be neutralized.
Perhaps he will find another big moment to finish Usman and defend his title, but I think Usman deserves to be the rightful favorite to reclaim his belt. Usman closed at in their championship fight, and I would argue, even despite losing via knockout, that there was value on his betting line there as well.
If he can no longer absorb strikes without taking severe damage, then Edwards is incredibly live to win and may be a great value target. Personally, I prefer the Usman moneyline and will have action there myself. If he had simply survived the final 56 seconds, he would be north of to win in this trilogy, and although I am slightly nervous about his durability, I am happy to put my faith in his dominant round winning ability in a favorable stylistic matchup.
I am actually really disappointed that the betting line is not more competitive in this matchup, as BetMGM has Vettori lined at , because I would be itching to bet against Dolidze otherwise. Who do the nuggets play in the playoffs Look no further than his last matchup against Jack Hermansson, who took Dolidze down twice, but was reversed into a tricky leg lock position that allowed Dolidze to freely land ground-and-pound until the ref stepped in.